Kovalchuk pact approved; NHL-NHLPA adopt rules for long-term deals

Hockey Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ilya Kovalchuk will finally join the New Jersey Devils after his re-submitted contract was officially and finally approved by the National Hockey League just before 3 a.m. (et) Saturday morning.

The re-worked contract now calls for Kovalchuk to collect a reported $100 million over 15 years, with an annual cap hit of close to $6.66 million. The deal is thought to pay out $90 million in the first 10 years and $10 million over the last five.

Kovalchuk's initial 17-year, $102 million deal with the Devils was rejected by the league on the grounds that it circumvented the league's salary cap. The deal was front-loaded so Kovalchuk could have earned as much money as possible while providing the lowest possible cap hit for the team.

The NHL Players' Association filed a grievance on Kovalchuk's behalf, but an arbitrator ruled in favor of the league. The Russian star, now 27, would be approaching age 43 when the contract expires.

The rejection of the contract provided much debate throughout the league in terms of "lifetime" contracts given to players that have helped reduce the yearly salary cap hit. Several players in previous years signed deals that took them past 40 years of age and saw the annual salary dip below $1 million in the final years of the contract.

The NHL and NHLPA together, did away with those scenarios in one fell swoop Friday, jointly adopting new regulations on such pacts while simultaneoulsy ruling on Kovalchuk's situation after a whirlwind of postponements on a ruling that stretched well into the night.

The new rules will apply only to long-term contracts, five years or longer in length, and only those going forward beyond the September 4 ruling date. All previous contracts are grandfathered in, meaning Kovalchuk's contract will likely be the last of its kind.

To that end, the two entities also announced that the league will terminate its circumvention investigations into the contracts signed in 2009 by Marian Hossa of the Chicago Blackhawks, Roberto Luongo of the Vancouver Canucks, Marc Savard of the Boston Bruins and Chris Pronger of the Philadelphia Flyers.

"We are pleased to finalize an agreement which ends the league's circumvention investigations and also establishes rules on long-term contracts that will provide players, their certified agents and general managers clarity for the negotiation of new contracts," said Roland Lee, associate counsel for the NHLPA and director of Salary Cap/Marketplace. "Turning the page on this process is something that will benefit all parties involved."

Taking into account the NHL's salary cap system and forthcoming CBA negotiations, a special calculation of value will be made in two ways for contracts that extend beyond a player's 41st birthday, and any long-term contract that averages more than $5.75 million for the three highest- compensation years will have rules put into place that limit that player's compensation to a minimum of $1 million between the ages of 36 and 40.

Because of the league's previous rules on player contracts after the age of 35, it was conceivable that someone could retire before a contract had expired, wiping the contract off the salary cap. This rule allowed teams to sign players to front-loaded contracts to benefit both the team and player.

"We're pleased to be able to establish clearly-defined rules for these types of contracts going forward and just as happy we can turn the page on uncertainties relating to several other existing contracts," NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly said. "From start to finish of this multi-week process we were able to work closely and cooperatively with representatives of the Players' Association, who shared our belief that the creation of definitive rules and guidelines in this area would be beneficial to everyone -- clubs and players alike."

Kovalchuk's deal will reportedly take the team about $3 million over the salary cap with 21 players under contract, and the Devils will have to get under the $59.4 million cap before the beginning of the season while adding two more players to the roster.

Kovalchuk posted 41 goals and 85 points in 76 games last season, 10 goals and 27 points coming in 27 games with New Jersey. In a five-game first-round playoff loss, the 27-year-old added two goals and six points.

In 621 games since entering the league in 2001, he has accumulated 338 goals and 642 points with Atlanta and New Jersey.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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